Colo Colo 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cobresal make the trip to Estadio Monumental David Arellano to face Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Colo Colo have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cobresal have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Colo Colo's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cobresal's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Colo Colo, 1 for Cobresal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Cobresal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 38% versus Cobresal 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 38% | Cobresal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.71 xG and Cobresal 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.452 / defence 0.775 | Cobresal attack 1.076 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.068. Colo Colo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Colo Colo's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Colo Colo games / 41 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 56% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 19%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Cobresal 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 10% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 56% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Colo Colo 1.71 / Cobresal 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.452 / def 0.775 | Cobresal attack 1.076 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cobresal xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Cobresal kick off?
Colo Colo vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Colo Colo 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Colo Colo vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Cobresal part of?
Colo Colo vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 56% chance of winning, Cobresal a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Colo Colo and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
Record (1 meetings): Colo Colo 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Cobresal in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 1.45x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.08x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.11
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.60
0.89
Cobresal xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
28.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.89 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 19W 5D 8L from 32 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 14L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cobresal heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 9W 2D 5L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colo Colo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.25 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 19W 5D 8L in their last 32 games (1.94 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Cobresal away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.81 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Cobresal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-0 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Colo Colo 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Cobresal?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 25%, Cobresal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Colo Colo) and 56% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Cobresal in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 56% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Colo Colo's recent games and 56% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Cobresal tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.71 xG and Cobresal 0.89 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.45 / defence 0.78 against Cobresal attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 56% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 19%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 38%, Cobresal 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.