Colo Colo 0-2 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Cobreloa at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colo Colo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Monumental David Arellano — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 2.23 xG and Cobreloa 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.221 / defence 0.807 | Cobreloa attack 0.849 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.240. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Colo Colo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Colo Colo games / 7 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 69% | Draw 18% | Cobreloa 13%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Cobreloa 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Apr 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 69% | Draw 18% | Cobreloa 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Colo Colo 2.23 / Cobreloa 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.221 / def 0.807 | Cobreloa attack 0.849 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cobreloa xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Cobreloa kick off?
Colo Colo vs Cobreloa kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Cobreloa?
Colo Colo 0 - 2 Cobreloa.
Where is Colo Colo vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Cobreloa part of?
Colo Colo vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 69% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Colo Colo and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobreloa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Cobreloa in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Colo Colo home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.22) and Cobreloa's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobreloa's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
69%
1.46
18%
5.43
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
3.08
0.85
Cobreloa xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
1%
72.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.85 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Colo Colo and Cobreloa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Colo Colo
0
Draws
1
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 1, Cobreloa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Cobreloa 0-1 Colo Colo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobreloa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Colo Colo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobreloa beat Colo Colo 0-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.23 xG and Cobreloa 0.85 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Colo Colo fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Cobreloa outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.22 / defence 0.81 against Cobreloa attack 0.85 / defence 1.33, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 69% | Draw 18% | Cobreloa 13%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Cobreloa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.