Cobresal 3-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Union La Calera at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union La Calera are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cobresal have won 2, Union La Calera 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 3–1 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Union La Calera 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 50% | Union La Calera 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.46 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.002 / defence 0.911 | Union La Calera attack 1.049 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.063. Data: 30 Cobresal games / 30 Union La Calera games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.85. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union La Calera (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 30% | Union La Calera 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Cobresal 1.46 / Union La Calera 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.002 / def 0.911 | Union La Calera attack 1.049 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union La Calera xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union La Calera kick off?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Cobresal 3 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Cobresal vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union La Calera part of?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cobresal and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Record (2 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.00) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.79
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.47
1.02
Union La Calera xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.02 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobresal's recent record stands at 24W 13D 25L from 62 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Union La Calera, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 20L across 62 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 16W 7D 8L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union La Calera's away record stands at 11W 9D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union La Calera away?
Cobresal's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.77 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
1
Draws
3
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 6, Union La Calera have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 55%, Union La Calera 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cobresal) and 58% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union La Calera in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cobresal's recent matches and 55% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cobresal's recent games and 58% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.46 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Union La Calera attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 26%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 50%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.