Cobresal 0-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cobresal (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cobresal face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Union Espanola meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio El Cobre, Cobresal have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Cobresal. A 1.10 PPG lead over Union Espanola (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Cobresal, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Union Espanola — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Cobresal winning.
The historical record gives Cobresal a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Union Espanola 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 50% | Union Espanola 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.241 / defence 0.765 | Union Espanola attack 0.875 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.207. Cobresal's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Cobresal games / 44 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 53% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 5.00. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 30% | Union Espanola 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 53% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Cobresal 1.48 / Union Espanola 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.241 / def 0.765 | Union Espanola attack 0.875 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Union Espanola xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Cobresal 0 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobresal vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 53% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cobresal and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Record (4 meetings): Cobresal 3W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.24) and Union Espanola's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.88x) against Cobresal's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.79
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
Union Espanola xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.81 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 13D 25L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 25W 10D 27L from 62 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cobresal against 1.37 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.77 PPG from 31 outings (16W 7D 8L).
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 12W 2D 17L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union Espanola away?
Cobresal's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.77 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 55%, Union Espanola 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cobresal) and 58% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union Espanola in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cobresal's recent matches and 52% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cobresal's recent games and 58% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cobresal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 15, as Cobresal and Union Espanola drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cobresal fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.24 / defence 0.77 against Union Espanola attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 53% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 50%, Union Espanola 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.37 PPG, Union Espanola 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.