Cobresal 2-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cobresal (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cobresal face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Union Espanola meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio El Cobre, Cobresal have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cobresal. A 0.80 PPG lead over Union Espanola (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cobresal lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Union Espanola winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Union Espanola 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Union Espanola 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.78 xG and Union Espanola 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.229 / defence 1.123 | Union Espanola attack 0.952 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.296. Data: 30 Cobresal games / 31 Union Espanola games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Union Espanola 3.33. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 60% | Union Espanola 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cobresal 1.78 / Union Espanola 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.229 / def 1.123 | Union Espanola attack 0.952 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union Espanola xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Cobresal 2 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobresal vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cobresal and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Record (6 meetings): Cobresal 3W | Draws 2 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.23) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.95x) against Cobresal's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (30/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.33
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.16
1.39
Union Espanola xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.39 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 20W 16D 24L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Cobresal against 1.27 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 9W 5D 16L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union Espanola away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Union Espanola 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 47% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cobresal's recent matches and 47% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 47% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Union Espanola share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 2, as Cobresal and Union Espanola drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.78 xG and Union Espanola 1.39 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.23 / defence 1.12 against Union Espanola attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Union Espanola 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Union Espanola 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.