Cobresal 2-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 45%, yet in-form Everton de Vina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Everton de Vina's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Everton de Vina arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 61% versus Everton de Vina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cobresal 54% | Everton de Vina 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.48 xG and Everton de Vina 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.156 / defence 1.235 | Everton de Vina attack 0.724 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.284. Data: 28 Cobresal games / 28 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 45% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 29%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 3.45. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 70% | Everton de Vina 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 45% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.48 / Everton de Vina 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.156 / def 1.235 | Everton de Vina attack 0.724 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 2 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 45% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.72x) against Cobresal's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.87
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
Everton de Vina xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.15 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 5D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Cobresal against 1.36 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 7W 2D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.93 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.64 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 64%, Everton de Vina 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cobresal) and 21% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Cobresal's recent matches and 43% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cobresal's recent games and 21% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 31, as Cobresal and Everton de Vina drew 2-2 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.48 xG and Everton de Vina 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.16 / defence 1.24 against Everton de Vina attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 45% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 29%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 54%, Everton de Vina 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.25 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.