Cobresal 1-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cobresal (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cobresal face Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cobresal's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cobresal, 0 for Everton de Vina and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Everton de Vina 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 61% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.61 xG and Everton de Vina 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.000 / defence 0.906 | Everton de Vina attack 0.772 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.161. Data: 56 Cobresal games / 56 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 56% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 19%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 70% | Everton de Vina 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 56% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Cobresal 1.61 / Everton de Vina 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.000 / def 0.906 | Everton de Vina attack 0.772 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Everton de Vina xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 1 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 56% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (8 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 6 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.77x) against Cobresal's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.02
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.42
0.81
Everton de Vina xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.81 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 14D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (17W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Cobresal against 1.21 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 15W 6D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.89 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Cobresal, 67% for Everton de Vina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Cobresal and 63% for Everton de Vina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cobresal's games and 67% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Cobresal's matches and 63% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Cobresal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.61 xG and Everton de Vina 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 56% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 19%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.38 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.