Antofagasta 1-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Antofagasta take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán to face Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 0.99 xG and Everton de Vina 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.881 / away 0.997. Data: 1 Antofagasta games / 1 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 31% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 30%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Everton de Vina 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 31% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Antofagasta 0.99 / Everton de Vina 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.881 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Everton de Vina xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 2 April 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Antofagasta 1 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina part of?
Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 31% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Antofagasta and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and Everton de Vina in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antofagasta's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.85x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
39%
2.55
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
1.97
0.97
Everton de Vina xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.97 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Antofagasta
2
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Everton de Vina 3-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Antofagasta 1-2 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 0.99 xG and Everton de Vina 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Everton de Vina attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 31% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.