Universidad de Chile 2-1 Magallanes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as Universidad de Chile welcome Magallanes to Estadio La Portada de La Serena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Universidad de Chile at Estadio La Portada de La Serena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.80 xG and Magallanes 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.914 / defence 1.171 | Magallanes attack 0.982 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.183. Magallanes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Universidad de Chile games / 3 Magallanes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Magallanes 29%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Magallanes 3.45. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Magallanes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.80 / Magallanes 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.914 / def 1.171 | Magallanes attack 0.982 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Magallanes xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 1 Magallanes.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 48% chance of winning, Magallanes a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Magallanes will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Magallanes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Magallanes in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Universidad de Chile home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Magallanes's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Magallanes's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.35
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
3.16
1.36
Magallanes xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Magallanes expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.36 for Magallanes, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Magallanes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Magallanes
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Universidad de Chile and Magallanes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Universidad de Chile
0
Draws
1
Magallanes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Magallanes?
From 2 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 1, Magallanes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Magallanes last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Magallanes 2-1 Universidad de Chile.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Magallanes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Magallanes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Magallanes 2-1 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.80 xG and Magallanes 1.36 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Magallanes attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Magallanes 29%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.