Universidad de Chile 0-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Universidad de Chile take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.04 xG and Everton de Vina 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 1.005 / defence 0.995 | Everton de Vina attack 0.878 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.091. Data: 6 Universidad de Chile games / 6 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 34% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 29%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Everton de Vina 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 34% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.04 / Everton de Vina 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 1.005 / def 0.995 | Everton de Vina attack 0.878 / def 1.108 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Everton de Vina xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 34% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.88x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
36%
2.75
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.00
0.95
Everton de Vina xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.95 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Chile 0-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.04 xG and Everton de Vina 0.95 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Everton de Vina attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 34% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.