Union La Calera 1-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Union La Calera take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.80 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Union La Calera 38% | Everton de Vina 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Union La Calera 38% | Everton de Vina 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.970 / defence 0.917 | Everton de Vina attack 0.898 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.133. Data: 13 Union La Calera games / 13 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 29% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 31%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Everton de Vina 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 29% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Union La Calera 0.89 / Everton de Vina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.970 / def 0.917 | Everton de Vina attack 0.898 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 1 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 29% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.97x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
39%
2.54
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
1.83
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.93 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 4D 2L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.92 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Union La Calera are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.08 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Everton de Vina in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 2.67 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton de Vina tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Union La Calera and 17% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 50% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Union La Calera's recent games and 17% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 29% | Draw 39% | Everton de Vina 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 38%, Everton de Vina 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.92 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.