U. Catolica 1-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 20 as U. Catolica welcome Cobresal to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
U. Catolica — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, U. Catolica have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — U. Catolica at 1.00 PPG versus Cobresal's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, U. Catolica have won 1, Cobresal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus Cobresal 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 64% | Cobresal 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.40 xG and Cobresal 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.882 / defence 0.806 | Cobresal attack 1.051 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.093. Data: 50 U. Catolica games / 51 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 48% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Cobresal 4.00. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 30% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 48% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG U. Catolica 1.40 / Cobresal 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.882 / def 0.806 | Cobresal attack 1.051 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cobresal xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Cobresal kick off?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
U. Catolica 1 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is U. Catolica vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Cobresal part of?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 48% chance of winning, Cobresal a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both U. Catolica and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Cobresal in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.68
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.33
0.93
Cobresal xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.93 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, U. Catolica have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 29W 3D 18L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal's form line: 20W 9D 21L from 50 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, U. Catolica have posted 2.38 PPG from 24 outings (18W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 7W 3D 14L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.36 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Cobresal in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 29W 3D 18L in their last 50 games (1.80 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 20W 9D 21L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Cobresal away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.38 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.00 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cobresal in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Cobresal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 38%, Cobresal 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (U. Catolica) and 58% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 58% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of U. Catolica's matches and 58% of Cobresal's.
Do U. Catolica and Cobresal tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Cobresal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Cobresal 1-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.40 xG and Cobresal 0.93 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against Cobresal attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 48% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 64%, Cobresal 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cobresal's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.