Everton de Vina 1-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
A. Italiano's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
A. Italiano away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Everton de Vina are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
The historical record gives Everton de Vina a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
A. Italiano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus A. Italiano 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | A. Italiano 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.28 xG and A. Italiano 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.959 / defence 1.091 | A. Italiano attack 0.974 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.031. Data: 42 Everton de Vina games / 42 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | A. Italiano 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 40% | A. Italiano 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.28 / A. Italiano 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.959 / def 1.091 | A. Italiano attack 0.974 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.10
A. Italiano xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano kick off?
Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano part of?
Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 41% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
Record (6 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 1 | A. Italiano 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. A. Italiano (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.96) and A. Italiano's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.97x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.61
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
A. Italiano xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.10 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 25W 15D 20L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
A. Italiano, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 31L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.15 for A. Italiano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
A. Italiano's away record stands at 9W 4D 17L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.20 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
A. Italiano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 20W 9D 31L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or A. Italiano away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, A. Italiano have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and A. Italiano?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, A. Italiano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 57% (A. Italiano).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; A. Italiano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play A. Italiano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 50% of A. Italiano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs A. Italiano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 57% of A. Italiano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and A. Italiano tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, A. Italiano in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and A. Italiano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and A. Italiano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.28 xG and A. Italiano 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against A. Italiano attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 32%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, A. Italiano 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.