Deportes Iquique 0-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deportes Iquique at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to take on Deportes Iquique. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deportes Iquique — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Deportes Iquique's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Tierra de Campeones this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Deportes Iquique have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Deportes Iquique register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Coquimbo Unido 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Deportes Iquique trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 70% and Coquimbo Unido 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 77% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.80 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.120 / defence 0.963 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.977 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.171. Data: 30 Deportes Iquique games / 30 Coquimbo Unido games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 54% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 23%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Coquimbo Unido 4.35. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Iquique are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 70% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 54% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.80 / Coquimbo Unido 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.120 / def 0.963 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.977 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Deportes Iquique 0 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 54% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Iquique 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 1.12x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.32
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.90
1.10
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
25.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.10 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 12W 9D 9L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Iquique on 1.60 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 3D 7L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.13 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Deportes Iquique or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Iquique have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Deportes Iquique.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 73%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Deportes Iquique and 47% for Coquimbo Unido. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Deportes Iquique's games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 47% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Iquique 0-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.80 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 54% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 23%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Coquimbo Unido win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.