Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Union La Calera have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.20 xG and Union La Calera 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.974 / defence 1.225 | Union La Calera attack 0.779 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.036. Data: 10 Coquimbo Unido games / 42 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 31% | Union La Calera 29%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Union La Calera 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 31% | Union La Calera 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.20 / Union La Calera 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.974 / def 1.225 | Union La Calera attack 0.779 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Union La Calera xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Union La Calera away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.97) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.78x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 10/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.23
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.18
0.99
Union La Calera xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.99 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Union La Calera have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Union La Calera 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 3-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.20 xG and Union La Calera 0.99 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 31% | Union La Calera 29%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.