Coquimbo Unido 3-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face Deportes Copiapo.

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Fixture Analysis

Coquimbo Unido welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 00:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Deportes Copiapo — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Deportes Copiapo away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.60 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Deportes Copiapo — a Coquimbo Unido win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Deportes Copiapo trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 70% and Deportes Copiapo 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 60% | Deportes Copiapo 43%). Note also that Deportes Copiapo surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.045 / defence 0.978 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.899 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.465. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 31 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.66 | Draw 3.80 | Deportes Copiapo 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 60% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Copiapo 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Coquimbo Unido 31 games, Deportes Copiapo 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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