Cobresal 2-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Union Espanola meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Cobresal have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Union Espanola's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cobresal. A 0.80 PPG lead over Union Espanola (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Cobresal, 1 for Union Espanola and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Cobresal 0–1 Union Espanola — a Union Espanola win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Union Espanola 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Union Espanola 47%). Note also that Union Espanola surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Cobresal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.78 xG and Union Espanola 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.229 / defence 1.123 | Union Espanola attack 0.952 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.296. Data: built from Cobresal's last 30 games and Union Espanola's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 4.33 | Union Espanola 3.33. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cobresal's last 10 home games and Union Espanola's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cobresal 60% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cobresal 30 games, Union Espanola 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 2 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Cobresal 1.78 / Union Espanola 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.229 / def 1.123 | Union Espanola attack 0.952 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union Espanola xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cobresal vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does Cobresal vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Cobresal 2 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobresal vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 2) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cobresal and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cobresal vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.23) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.95x) against Cobresal's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Cobresal's last 30 games and Union Espanola's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.33
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.16
1.39
Union Espanola xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cobresal vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.39 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 20W 16D 24L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Cobresal against 1.27 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 9W 5D 16L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
Cobresal (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cobresal
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Cobresal vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union Espanola away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Cobresal vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cobresal have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Union Espanola 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 47% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union Espanola in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cobresal vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cobresal and Union Espanola matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cobresal's recent matches and 47% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cobresal and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 47% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Cobresal's recent matches and 77% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Union Espanola share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 2, as Cobresal and Union Espanola drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.78 xG and Union Espanola 1.39 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.23 / defence 1.12 against Union Espanola attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 30%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Union Espanola 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Union Espanola 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.