Cobresal 3-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cobresal face Deportes Limache.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cobresal welcome Deportes Limache to Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in Primera División (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cobresal — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, Cobresal have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cobresal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.93 xG and Deportes Limache 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.005 / defence 0.979 | Deportes Limache attack 0.965 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 0.914. Deportes Limache's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cobresal's projected output up. Data: built from Cobresal's last 38 games and Deportes Limache's last 8.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.62 | Draw 4.40 | Deportes Limache 6.42. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, matchday 9 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cobresal 1.93 / Deportes Limache 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.005 / def 0.979 | Deportes Limache attack 0.965 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.513 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Deportes Limache xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cobresal vs Deportes Limache FAQs
What time does Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Cobresal 3 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache part of?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache is a Primera División fixture (matchday 9) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 62% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cobresal and Deportes Limache will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cobresal vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.00x the league average against Deportes Limache's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cobresal's last 38 games and Deportes Limache's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.40
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.79
0.86
Deportes Limache xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
44.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cobresal vs Deportes Limache Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.86 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cobresal (Home) vs Deportes Limache (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2025. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Deportes Limache have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Mar 2026, when Deportes Limache won Cobresal 2-5 Deportes Limache.
Cobresal's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cobresal
0
Draws
3
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Cobresal vs Deportes Limache H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cobresal have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Deportes Limache last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Deportes Limache 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deportes Limache.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Deportes Limache 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.93 xG and Deportes Limache 0.86 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Limache attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.