Cobresal 0-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 44%, yet in-form Colo Colo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cobresal vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Colo Colo meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cobresal's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio El Cobre — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Colo Colo are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cobresal 1W, Colo Colo 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Colo Colo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 52% | Colo Colo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.43 xG and Colo Colo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.074 / defence 0.836 | Colo Colo attack 1.211 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.122. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Cobresal games / 56 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 44% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 30%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Colo Colo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Colo Colo (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 50% | Colo Colo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 44% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cobresal 1.43 / Colo Colo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.074 / def 0.836 | Colo Colo attack 1.211 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Colo Colo xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Colo Colo kick off?
Cobresal vs Colo Colo kicked off at 21:00 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Cobresal 0 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Cobresal vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Colo Colo part of?
Cobresal vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 44% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cobresal and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Colo Colo in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.21x) against Cobresal's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.80
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.56
1.14
Colo Colo xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.14 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 12D 23L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo's form line: 34W 11D 11L from 56 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 15W 7D 6L from 28 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.70 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 34W 11D 11L in their last 56 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.75 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-0 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Colo Colo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Colo Colo 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 61%, Colo Colo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cobresal) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cobresal's games and 61% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cobresal's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Cobresal 0-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.43 xG and Colo Colo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cobresal fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Colo Colo outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Colo Colo attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 44% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 30%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 52%, Colo Colo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Colo Colo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.