York United 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 June 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 2W 5D 3L at York Lions Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 69% and Pacific FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 55% | Pacific FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.28 xG and Pacific FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.882 / defence 0.803 | Pacific FC attack 0.692 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.215. Data: 38 York United games / 39 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 51% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 20%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Pacific FC 5.00. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pacific FC's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 35% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: York United 70% | Pacific FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 51% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG York United 1.28 / Pacific FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.882 / def 0.803 | Pacific FC attack 0.692 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: York United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Pacific FC xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 51% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.41
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
York United xG
Total xG
1.95
0.68
Pacific FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for York United and 0.68 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 9L across 29 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 4W 7D 3L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.66 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 64%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (York United) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 36%; Pacific FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of York United's games and 50% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of York United's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as York United and Pacific FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.28 xG and Pacific FC 0.68 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Pacific FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 51% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 20%, with York United to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 55%, Pacific FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.