York United 0-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs HFX Wanderers FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
York United and HFX Wanderers FC meet at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at York Lions Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at York Lions Stadium this season.
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. York United's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of HFX Wanderers FC's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus HFX Wanderers FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 48% | HFX Wanderers FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.49 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.991 / defence 1.284 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.924 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.210. Data: 52 York United games / 52 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 39% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 36%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | HFX Wanderers FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 39% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG York United 1.49 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.991 / def 1.284 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.924 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: York United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.44
HFX Wanderers FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
York United vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?
York United 0 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is York United vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
York United vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 39% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both York United and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and HFX Wanderers FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and HFX Wanderers FC in?
York United (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.99) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.92x) against York United's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
39%
2.57
25%
4.06
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
York United xG
Total xG
2.93
1.44
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are York United and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for York United and 1.44 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 17D 19L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (16W 15D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for York United against 1.21 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 8W 9D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.77 points per game from 26 outings (4W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
York United's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.27 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.77 PPG.
Have York United or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won 4-0 on 1 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
4
Draws
4
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did York United and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, HFX Wanderers FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (York United) and 46% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 31% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of York United's recent matches and 42% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of York United's recent games and 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as York United and HFX Wanderers FC drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.49 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 39% | Draw 25% | HFX Wanderers FC 36%, with York United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 48%, HFX Wanderers FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.25 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.