York United 0-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at York Lions Stadium this season.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Forge have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forge trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus Forge 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 49% | Forge 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.73 xG and Forge 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.933 / defence 1.219 | Forge attack 1.011 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 0.899 / away 1.188. Data: 31 York United games / 31 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 15% | Draw 34% | Forge 51%. Fair-value odds: York United 6.67 | Draw 2.94 | Forge 1.96. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Forge 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 15% | Draw 34% | Forge 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG York United 0.73 / Forge 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.933 / def 1.219 | Forge attack 1.011 / def 0.870 | league avg home 0.899 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Forge (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Forge xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 1 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 15% chance of winning, Forge a 51% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
15%
6.64
34%
2.96
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
York United xG
Total xG
2.19
1.46
Forge xG
6.64
15%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
3%
28.69
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for York United and 1.46 for Forge, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, York United have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 17W 19D 21L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Forge's form line: 31W 8D 18L from 57 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, Forge have gone 14W 5D 9L from 28 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Forge have gone 31W 8D 18L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.32 PPG; Forge away: 1.68 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Forge in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, Forge 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (York United) and 43% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 39%; York United have failed to score in 32% of games; Forge in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of York United's recent matches and 39% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of York United's recent games and 43% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Forge in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out York United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 0-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.73 xG and Forge 1.46 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 15% | Draw 34% | Forge 51%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 49%, Forge 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.