York United 0-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 3D 3L from 8 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at York Lions Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 4W 0D 4L from 8 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.12 PPG, Forge 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Forge trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Forge 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 62% | Forge 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.02 xG and Forge 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.012 / defence 1.052 | Forge attack 0.931 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 0.883. Data: 8 York United games / 8 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 38% | Draw 32% | Forge 30%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Forge 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Forge 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 38% | Draw 32% | Forge 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG York United 1.02 / Forge 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.012 / def 1.052 | Forge attack 0.931 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.937 / away 0.883 • Poisson stance: York United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Forge xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 1 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 38% chance of winning, Forge a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Forge (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.14
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
York United xG
Total xG
1.89
0.86
Forge xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for York United and 0.86 for Forge, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, York United have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 4W 0D 4L from 8 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.12 PPG, Forge on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — York United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Forge have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge in 25%.
Defensively: Forge in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Forge have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
York United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 2.00 PPG; Forge away: 1.50 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Forge in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Forge see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Forge 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (York United) and 25% (Forge).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Forge in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 25% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of York United's recent games and 25% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Forge in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat York United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 0-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.02 xG and Forge 0.86 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Forge attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 38% | Draw 32% | Forge 30%, with York United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Forge 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.12 PPG, Forge 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.