Valour 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 36%, yet in-form York United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Monday 24 July 2023 at 01:00 UK time.
Current Form
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Valour at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Valour are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus York United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 28% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.05 xG and York United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.844 / defence 0.767 | York United attack 1.025 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.268. Valour have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling York United's projected output down. Data: built from Valour's last 43 games and York United's last 44.
Result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.82 | Draw 3.16 | York United 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Valour's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valour 40% (last 10 home games) | York United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 24 July 2023 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Valour 1.05 / York United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.844 / def 0.767 | York United attack 1.025 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Valour (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.00
York United xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valour vs York United FAQs
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Monday 24 July 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 36% chance of winning, York United a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Valour and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.84x the league average against York United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.02x) against Valour's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Valour's last 43 games and York United's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
36%
2.82
32%
3.16
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Valour xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
York United xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valour vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Valour and 1.00 for York United, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 14D 16L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Valour against 1.28 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across their last 21 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 21 away games (8W 4D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
Valour (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Valour vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while York United have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.67 PPG; York United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, York United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Valour vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2025: York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 38%, York United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Valour and 48% for York United.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; York United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valour vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valour and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Valour's recent matches and 43% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valour and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Valour's recent games and 48% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Valour 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.05 xG and York United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. York United outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.84 / defence 0.77 against York United attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 28%, York United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.23 PPG, York United 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.