Valour 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 24 July 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour at IG Field this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus York United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 28% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.05 xG and York United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.844 / defence 0.767 | York United attack 1.025 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.268. Valour's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Valour games / 44 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | York United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | York United 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Valour 1.05 / York United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.844 / def 0.767 | York United attack 1.025 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Valour (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.00
York United xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 36% chance of winning, York United a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. York United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.84x the league average against York United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.02x) against Valour's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
36%
2.82
32%
3.16
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Valour xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
York United xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Valour and 1.00 for York United, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 14D 16L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Valour against 1.28 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while York United have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.67 PPG; York United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, York United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
York United see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 38%, York United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Valour and 48% for York United.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; York United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Valour's recent matches and 43% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Valour's recent games and 48% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Valour 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.05 xG and York United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. York United outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.84 / defence 0.77 against York United attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 36% | Draw 32% | York United 33%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 28%, York United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.23 PPG, York United 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.