Valour 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 42%, yet in-form York United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Monday 12 August 2024 at 02:00 UK time.
Current Form
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Valour at home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
York United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Jun 2024, ended Valour 1–0 York United — a Valour win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
York United — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus York United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 44% | York United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.37 xG and York United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.881 / defence 0.988 | York United attack 0.918 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.223. Data: built from Valour's last 45 games and York United's last 45.
Result probabilities: Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.38 | Draw 3.51 | York United 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valour 40% (last 10 home games) | York United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 August 2024 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Valour 1.37 / York United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.881 / def 0.988 | York United attack 0.918 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Valour (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.11
York United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valour vs York United FAQs
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Monday 12 August 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 42% chance of winning, York United a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valour and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.88x the league average against York United's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.92x) against Valour's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Valour's last 45 games and York United's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Valour xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
York United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valour vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Valour and 1.11 for York United, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 10D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.47 PPG from 45 outings (19W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across their last 20 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 20 away games (6W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 62%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
Valour (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Valour vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while York United have gone 19W 9D 17L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.10 PPG; York United away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Valour vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2025: York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 45%, York United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valour) and 65% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valour vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valour and York United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Valour's games and 75% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valour and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valour's recent games and 65% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Valour's recent matches and 65% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 0-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.37 xG and York United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 44%, York United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.