Valour 0-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at IG Field this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Valour, 1.40 for Cavalry FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 52% versus Cavalry FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 30% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.32 xG and Cavalry FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.885 / defence 0.674 | Cavalry FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.208. Valour's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Valour games / 39 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 51% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Cavalry FC 5.26. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | Cavalry FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 51% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Valour 1.32 / Cavalry FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.885 / def 0.674 | Cavalry FC attack 0.858 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Valour (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Cavalry FC xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 0 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 51% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.89) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.86x) against Valour's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.32
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Valour xG
Total xG
2.02
0.70
Cavalry FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Valour and 0.70 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 13W 13D 14L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 11L across 40 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Valour against 1.58 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 9W 7D 3L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 4W 8D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 17W 12D 11L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Valour's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.79 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Valour or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 42%, Cavalry FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Valour and 53% for Cavalry FC.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Valour's recent matches and 58% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Valour's recent games and 53% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 0-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.32 xG and Cavalry FC 0.70 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valour fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.89 / defence 0.67 against Cavalry FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 51% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 19%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Cavalry FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 30%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.30 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.