Supra du Quebec 3-1 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Supra du Quebec and York United meet at CEPSUM Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
York United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.53 xG and York United 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | York United attack 0.966 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 33%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | York United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.53 / York United 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | York United attack 0.966 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.41
York United xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs York United kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs York United kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 29 May 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Supra du Quebec 3 - 1 York United.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs York United being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs York United part of?
Supra du Quebec vs York United is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, York United a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Supra du Quebec and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Supra du Quebec and York United in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. York United away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.97x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.53
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.94
1.41
York United xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.41 for York United, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
York United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and York United?
From 2 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 1, York United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and York United last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when York United 1-1 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and York United?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Supra du Quebec cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat York United 3-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.53 xG and York United 1.41 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Supra du Quebec beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against York United attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 33%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.