Supra du Quebec 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 36%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Supra du Quebec vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Forge travel to CEPSUM Stadium to take on Supra du Quebec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Supra du Quebec stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's home record at CEPSUM Stadium: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Forge — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Forge — 1.28 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.22). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Supra du Quebec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Forge in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Supra du Quebec, 1 for Forge and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Forge winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Supra du Quebec in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forge in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Supra du Quebec 67% versus Forge 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 44% | Forge 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.49 xG and Forge 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Forge attack 1.007 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 36% | Draw 28% | Forge 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Forge 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 60% | Forge 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 36% | Draw 28% | Forge 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.49 / Forge 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Forge attack 1.007 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Forge xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Forge kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Forge kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Supra du Quebec 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Forge part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Forge is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 36% chance of winning, Forge a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
Record (1 meetings): Supra du Quebec 0W | Draws 0 | Forge 1W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Forge in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Forge (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Supra du Quebec's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
36%
2.74
28%
3.56
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.96
1.47
Forge xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.47 for Forge, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Supra du Quebec have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 7W 1D 1L from 9 games, 2.44 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Supra du Quebec.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Supra du Quebec have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Supra du Quebec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Forge have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Forge in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Forge have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.75 PPG; Forge away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Supra du Quebec or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Supra du Quebec have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Forge in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Supra du Quebec and Forge runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Supra du Quebec's record when hosting Forge specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
From 4 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Forge have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-0 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forge see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Supra du Quebec at 75%, Forge at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Supra du Quebec and 75% for Forge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Forge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Supra du Quebec's games and 75% of Forge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Supra du Quebec's matches and 75% of Forge's.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Supra du Quebec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Supra du Quebec 1-2 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.49 xG and Forge 1.47 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 36% | Draw 28% | Forge 35%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Supra du Quebec 44%, Forge 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.