Pacific FC 3-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Valour at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Valour — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.50 PPG, Valour 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
Valour in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 64% versus Valour 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 64% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.68 xG and Valour 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.200 / defence 1.032 | Valour attack 1.058 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.032. Data: 29 Pacific FC games / 29 Valour games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 50% | Draw 24% | Valour 26%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Valour 3.85. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 90% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 50% | Draw 24% | Valour 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Pacific FC 1.68 / Valour 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.200 / def 1.032 | Valour attack 1.058 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Valour xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Valour kick off?
Pacific FC vs Valour kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Pacific FC 3 - 2 Valour.
Where is Pacific FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Valour part of?
Pacific FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 50% chance of winning, Valour a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pacific FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pacific FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Valour's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.14
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.13
Valour xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.13 for Valour, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 14W 5D 9L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Valour away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Valour away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Valour runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Valour specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pacific FC
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Valour?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 85%, Valour at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Pacific FC and 62% for Valour. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valour in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Pacific FC's games and 62% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Pacific FC's matches and 62% of Valour's.
Do Pacific FC and Valour tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Valour in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Valour 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 3-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.68 xG and Valour 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Valour attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 50% | Draw 24% | Valour 26%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 64%, Valour 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.