Pacific FC 1-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pacific FC face Forge.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Forge (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Forge are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Forge hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Forge winning.
It is worth noting that Forge have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 49% versus Forge 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Forge 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.37 xG and Forge 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.153 | Forge attack 1.023 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.171. Data: 55 Pacific FC games / 55 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 35% | Draw 29% | Forge 36%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Forge 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 40% | Forge 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 35% | Draw 29% | Forge 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Pacific FC 1.37 / Forge 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.989 / def 1.153 | Forge attack 1.023 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Forge (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Forge xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 35% chance of winning, Forge a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
Record (4 meetings): Pacific FC 0W | Draws 1 | Forge 3W.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Pacific FC vs Forge?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.99) and Forge's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.02x) against Pacific FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.40
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Forge xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.38 for Forge, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 14D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.72 PPG from 57 outings (28W 14D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.44 points per game from 27 outings (11W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.54 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 20W 14D 23L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Forge have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.37 PPG; Forge away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 44%, Forge 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Pacific FC) and 56% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forge in 37%; Pacific FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Forge in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 41% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pacific FC's recent games and 56% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Forge in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Forge 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Forge 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.37 xG and Forge 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Forge attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 35% | Draw 29% | Forge 36%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Forge 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Pacific FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.