HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as HFX Wanderers FC face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pacific FC travel to Wanderers Grounds to take on HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Monday 7 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pacific FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Pacific FC away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: HFX Wanderers FC 1.90 PPG, Pacific FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
HFX Wanderers FC in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 42% versus Pacific FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 42% | Pacific FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.157 / defence 0.825 | Pacific FC attack 1.303 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.275. Pacific FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.303, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from HFX Wanderers FC's last 45 games and Pacific FC's last 45.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 39%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.90 | Draw 3.83 | Pacific FC 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: HFX Wanderers FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Pacific FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Monday 7 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 / Pacific FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.157 / def 0.825 | Pacific FC attack 1.303 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pacific FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC FAQs
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 7 August 2023 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 34% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus HFX Wanderers FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from HFX Wanderers FC's last 45 games and Pacific FC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.83
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.37
Pacific FC xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.37 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 12D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.56 PPG from 45 outings (19W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: HFX Wanderers FC on 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across their last 21 home games, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 21 away games (10W 4D 7L).
The Goals Picture
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC (Home) vs Pacific FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC Form FAQs
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 13D 13L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Pacific FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won Pacific FC 3-0 HFX Wanderers FC.
HFX Wanderers FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
3
Draws
3
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Pacific FC 4-3 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 43%, Pacific FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC in 33%; HFX Wanderers FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 43% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 52% of Pacific FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Pacific FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 39%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 42%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.