Forge 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 June 2023, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Forge) versus 1.70 (York United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 42% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 46% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.31 xG and York United 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.215 / defence 1.010 | York United attack 1.095 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.293. Data: 35 Forge games / 35 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 31% | Draw 33% | York United 36%. Fair-value odds: Forge 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | York United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | York United 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 31% | Draw 33% | York United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Forge 1.31 / York United 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.215 / def 1.010 | York United attack 1.095 / def 1.164 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: York United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.43
York United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 1 June 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 31% chance of winning, York United a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.22) and York United's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
31%
3.25
33%
3.05
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Forge xG
Total xG
2.74
1.43
York United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Forge and 1.43 for York United, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Forge have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 31W 8D 18L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 17W 19D 21L from 57 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (17W 3D 9L).
On the road, York United have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 31W 8D 18L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.86 PPG; York United away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 45%, York United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Forge) and 52% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; York United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Forge's recent matches and 55% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Forge's recent games and 52% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, York United in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Forge 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Forge 1-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.31 xG and York United 1.43 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against York United attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 31% | Draw 33% | York United 36%, with York United to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 46%, York United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.