Forge 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pacific FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 24% versus Pacific FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 29% | Pacific FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.07 xG and Pacific FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.044 / defence 1.064 | Pacific FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.034. Data: 17 Forge games / 19 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 37% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Pacific FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Forge 30% | Pacific FC 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 37% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Forge 1.07 / Pacific FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.044 / def 1.064 | Pacific FC attack 0.894 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Forge (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pacific FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 37% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.04x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (0.89x) against Forge's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 17/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.30
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Forge xG
Total xG
2.06
0.98
Pacific FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Forge and 0.98 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 1D 7L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Forge against 1.88 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.65 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Pacific FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 9W 1D 7L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.43 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pacific FC tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Pacific FC 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 29% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 57%; Forge have failed to score in 29% of games; Pacific FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 29% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 29% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.07 xG and Pacific FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Pacific FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 17/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 37% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 33%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 29%, Pacific FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.65 PPG, Pacific FC 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.