Forge 3-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 5 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 0.797 / defence 1.266 | Pacific FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.126. Forge's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pacific FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Forge games / 2 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 27% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Forge 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Pacific FC 2.17. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 27% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Forge 0.98 / Pacific FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 0.797 / def 1.266 | Pacific FC attack 0.969 / def 1.276 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pacific FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 5 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 3 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 27% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 0.80x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (0.97x) against Forge's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
27%
3.75
27%
3.67
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Forge xG
Total xG
2.36
1.38
Pacific FC xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.95
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Forge and 1.38 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Forge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pacific FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Early Season
Pacific FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Forge's recent games and 50% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 3-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 0.98 xG and Pacific FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against Pacific FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 27% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 46%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 0%, Pacific FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Forge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.