Forge 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cavalry FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 42% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 42% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.57 xG and Cavalry FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.133 / defence 1.077 | Cavalry FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.354. Data: 51 Forge games / 50 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 35% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 70% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 35% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Forge 1.57 / Cavalry FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.133 / def 1.077 | Cavalry FC attack 1.160 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Cavalry FC xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 10 September 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 35% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
35%
2.86
25%
4.02
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Forge xG
Total xG
3.26
1.69
Cavalry FC xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
15.53
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Forge and 1.69 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 13D 14L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 52 outings (25W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.72 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 56%, Cavalry FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Forge) and 56% (Cavalry FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Forge's games and 60% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Forge's recent games and 56% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Forge's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.57 xG and Cavalry FC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Forge fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.13 / defence 1.08 against Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 35% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 40%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 42%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.