Forge 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at IG Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.71 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forge's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at IG Field this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — 1.57 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cavalry FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.57 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Forge 14% | Cavalry FC 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Forge 29% | Cavalry FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.01 xG and Cavalry FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.030 / defence 1.058 | Cavalry FC attack 1.162 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.915. Data: 7 Forge games / 7 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 32% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Forge 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Cavalry FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 0% | Cavalry FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 32% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Forge 1.01 / Cavalry FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.030 / def 1.058 | Cavalry FC attack 1.162 / def 1.031 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.915 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cavalry FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 23 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 32% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.29
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Forge xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Cavalry FC xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Forge and 1.13 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 0D 3L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cavalry FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Cavalry FC travel well.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Early Season
Cavalry FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Forge 0% BTTS, Cavalry FC 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Forge) and 67% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 33%; Forge have failed to score in 33% of games; Cavalry FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Forge's recent matches and 67% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Forge's recent games and 67% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Forge 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.01 xG and Cavalry FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 32% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 38%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 29%, Cavalry FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.