Forge 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, R79396. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Forge's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.90 PPG, Cavalry FC 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Forge, 0 for Cavalry FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Forge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 48% versus Cavalry FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 55% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.33 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.274 / defence 0.826 | Cavalry FC attack 1.304 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.135. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Forge games / 56 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Cavalry FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Forge 40% | Cavalry FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, R79396 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Forge 1.33 / Cavalry FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.274 / def 0.826 | Cavalry FC attack 1.304 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Forge (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a R79396 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Record (1 meetings): Forge 1W | Draws 0 | Cavalry FC 0W.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.32
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Forge xG
Total xG
2.56
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Forge and 1.22 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 14D 16L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (29W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 16W 7D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.64 points per game from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.96 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 57%, Cavalry FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Forge) and 46% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Forge's games and 64% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Forge's recent games and 46% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, R79396, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.33 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Cavalry FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 55%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.