Forge 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Forge face Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League (R79396). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Forge — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Forge's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Forge are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Cavalry FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.90 PPG, Cavalry FC 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 48% versus Cavalry FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 55% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.33 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.274 / defence 0.826 | Cavalry FC attack 1.304 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.135. Forge carry an above-average attack rating of 1.274 — their 1.33 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Forge's projected output down. Cavalry FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.304, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Data: built from Forge's last 56 games and Cavalry FC's last 56.
Result probabilities: Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.66 | Draw 3.32 | Cavalry FC 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Forge 40% (last 10 home games) | Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, R79396 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Forge 1.33 / Cavalry FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.274 / def 0.826 | Cavalry FC attack 1.304 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Forge (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC FAQs
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (R79396) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Forge's last 56 games and Cavalry FC's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.32
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Forge xG
Total xG
2.56
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Forge and 1.22 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 14D 16L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (29W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 16W 7D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 66%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge (Home) vs Cavalry FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Form FAQs
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.96 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 4-1 Forge.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Forge
4
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Forge have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Cavalry FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 57%, Cavalry FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Forge) and 46% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Forge and Cavalry FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Forge's games and 64% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Forge and Cavalry FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Forge's recent games and 46% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Forge's recent matches and 68% of Cavalry FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, R79396, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.33 xG and Cavalry FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Cavalry FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 38% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 32%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 55%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.