FC Edmonton 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Clarke Field plays host to FC Edmonton versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 1 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Edmonton have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Clarke Field, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, York United are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Edmonton, 1 for York United and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Edmonton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 63% versus York United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 51% | York United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.96 xG and York United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.991 / defence 1.141 | York United attack 0.576 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.315. York United's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 FC Edmonton games / 40 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 36% | Draw 33% | York United 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | York United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Edmonton at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 60% | York United 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 36% | Draw 33% | York United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Edmonton 0.96 / York United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.991 / def 1.141 | York United attack 0.576 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.86
York United xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs York United kick off?
FC Edmonton vs York United kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 1 July 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs York United?
FC Edmonton 3 - 0 York United.
Where is FC Edmonton vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs York United part of?
FC Edmonton vs York United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 36% chance of winning, York United a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Edmonton and York United will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and York United?
Record (4 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 3 | York United 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and York United in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 0.99x the league average against York United's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.58x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
36%
2.75
33%
3.07
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.83
0.86
York United xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and York United expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.86 for York United, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 7W 14D 20L from 41 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 14L across 41 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.15 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Edmonton have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 4W 8D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.05 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and York United in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 7W 14D 20L in their last 41 games (0.85 PPG), while York United have gone 10W 17D 14L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or York United away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.10 PPG; York United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
York United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Edmonton won 3-0 on 1 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
3
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and York United?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, York United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and York United last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when York United 3-1 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 65%, York United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Edmonton) and 50% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Edmonton's games and 60% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 50% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and York United tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, York United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Edmonton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat York United 3-0 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.96 xG and York United 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against York United attack 0.58 / defence 0.80, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 36% | Draw 33% | York United 31%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 51%, York United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 0.85 PPG, York United 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Edmonton win broke the near-deadlock. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.