FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 47%, yet in-form Valour provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Edmonton vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Edmonton and Valour meet at Clarke Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valour are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valour in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Edmonton, 1 for Valour and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Valour — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 64% versus Valour 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 51% | Valour 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.69 xG and Valour 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.088 / defence 1.133 | Valour attack 0.970 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.160. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 FC Edmonton games / 55 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 24% | Valour 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Valour 3.45. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valour (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 60% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 24% | Valour 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Edmonton 1.69 / Valour 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.088 / def 1.133 | Valour attack 0.970 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Valour xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Valour kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Valour kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
FC Edmonton 3 - 1 Valour.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Valour part of?
FC Edmonton vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 47% chance of winning, Valour a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Edmonton and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
Record (9 meetings): FC Edmonton 2W | Draws 6 | Valour 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Valour (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 1.09x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.97x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.18
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.96
1.27
Valour xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.27 for Valour, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 9W 18D 28L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 20W 12D 23L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.19 PPG from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Valour have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Valour away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.19 PPG; Valour away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Valour in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Edmonton
6
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 3, Valour have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Valour?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 59%, Valour 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Edmonton) and 59% (Valour).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Edmonton's games and 67% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 59% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Valour tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Valour in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat Valour 3-1 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.69 xG and Valour 1.27 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Valour attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 47% | Draw 24% | Valour 29%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 51%, Valour 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with FC Edmonton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.