FC Edmonton 1-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FC Edmonton take on Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Pacific FC travel to Clarke Field to take on FC Edmonton. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 September 2021, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Edmonton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Edmonton's 29% rate and Pacific FC's 17% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 0 for Pacific FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Edmonton in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 47% versus Pacific FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 40% | Pacific FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.81 xG and Pacific FC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.809 / defence 0.947 | Pacific FC attack 0.813 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 0.973. Data: 15 FC Edmonton games / 15 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 36% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Pacific FC 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Pacific FC's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.56 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 29% | Pacific FC 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 36% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG FC Edmonton 0.81 / Pacific FC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.809 / def 0.947 | Pacific FC attack 0.813 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.051 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Pacific FC xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
FC Edmonton 1 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 34% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both FC Edmonton and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.81) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
36%
2.79
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.56
0.75
Pacific FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.75 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 5D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Edmonton's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Pacific FC away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.83 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacific FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Pacific FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Edmonton 33% BTTS, Pacific FC 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for FC Edmonton and 33% for Pacific FC.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pacific FC in 67%; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacific FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 17% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 33% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat FC Edmonton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 1-2 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.81 xG and Pacific FC 0.75 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Pacific FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 34% | Draw 36% | Pacific FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 40%, Pacific FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.