FC Edmonton 3-4 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC Edmonton welcome Forge to Clarke Field. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 June 2022 at 02:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Edmonton have posted 3W 3D 4L at Clarke Field — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Forge's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 2 for Forge and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Forge winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Edmonton in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Forge in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 61% versus Forge 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | Forge 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Forge 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.787 / defence 1.111 | Forge attack 1.158 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.166. FC Edmonton's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 FC Edmonton games / 34 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 21% | Draw 26% | Forge 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Forge 1.92. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 70% | Forge 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jun 2022, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 21% | Draw 26% | Forge 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Edmonton 0.85 / Forge 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.787 / def 1.111 | Forge attack 1.158 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Forge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Forge xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Forge kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Forge kicked off at 02:00 on Wednesday 1 June 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
FC Edmonton 3 - 4 Forge.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Forge part of?
FC Edmonton vs Forge is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 21% chance of winning, Forge a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Edmonton and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Record (4 meetings): FC Edmonton 2W | Draws 0 | Forge 2W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.79) and Forge's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
21%
4.67
26%
3.82
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.35
1.50
Forge xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
20.94
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.50 for Forge, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton's recent record stands at 6W 10D 12L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 17W 2D 9L across 28 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forge by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Edmonton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Edmonton have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Forge's away record stands at 8W 1D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.50 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Forge in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Forge have gone 17W 2D 9L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.46 PPG; Forge away: 1.92 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Forge in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Forge runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2022, when Forge won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Forge?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, Forge have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 62%, Forge 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Edmonton) and 38% (Forge).
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Forge in 46%; Forge in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 31% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 38% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Forge tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Forge in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out FC Edmonton 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat FC Edmonton 3-4 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Forge 1.50 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Forge outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Forge attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 21% | Draw 26% | Forge 52%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, Forge 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.