Cavalry FC 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 03:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Cavalry FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valour's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Valour's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Valour edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Cavalry FC 2–3 Valour — a Valour win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | Valour 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.44 xG and Valour 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.133 / defence 0.745 | Valour attack 0.778 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.357. Valour's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Cavalry FC have a tight defence (rating 0.745), which is pulling Valour's projected output down. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 54 games and Valour's last 54.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 52% | Draw 27% | Valour 20%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.91 | Draw 3.64 | Valour 4.93. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and Valour's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Valour 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 03:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 52% | Draw 27% | Valour 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Cavalry FC 1.44 / Valour 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.133 / def 0.745 | Valour attack 0.778 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Valour xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 03:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 52% chance of winning, Valour a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Valour's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.78x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 54 games and Valour's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.64
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.79
Valour xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.79 for Valour, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 28W 12D 14L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 16W 15D 23L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 27 home games (18W 4D 5L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 7D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.11 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC (Home) vs Valour (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 28W 12D 14L in their last 54 games (1.78 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Valour away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valour in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 4-0 Valour on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 52%, Valour 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cavalry FC) and 48% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and Valour matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Cavalry FC's games and 59% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cavalry FC and Valour matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 48% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 63% of Valour's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.44 xG and Valour 0.79 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.74 against Valour attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 52% | Draw 27% | Valour 20%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Valour 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.