Cavalry FC 0-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Forge travel to IG Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 July 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cavalry FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Forge have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.33 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.33 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forge trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Cavalry FC 67% | Forge 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 67% | Forge 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.19 xG and Forge 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.890 / defence 1.059 | Forge attack 0.713 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 0.967. Forge bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Cavalry FC games / 3 Forge games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 31% | Forge 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Forge 4.35. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 67% | Forge 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 31% | Forge 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Cavalry FC 1.19 / Forge 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.890 / def 1.059 | Forge attack 0.713 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.022 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Forge xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 9 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 0 - 2 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 47% chance of winning, Forge a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-D. Forge (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.89) and Forge's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.28
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.92
0.73
Forge xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.73 for Forge, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cavalry FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Forge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Forge heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Forge in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Early Season
Forge
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Forge have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Forge in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Forge see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cavalry FC 67% BTTS, Forge 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cavalry FC) and 33% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Forge in 33%; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Forge in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 0% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 33% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Forge in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 0-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.19 xG and Forge 0.73 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Forge attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 31% | Forge 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Forge win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 67%, Forge 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Forge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.