Cavalry FC 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, R73389 sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 October 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Forge away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 53% versus Forge 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | Forge 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.49 xG and Forge 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.266 / defence 0.705 | Forge attack 1.040 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.312. Cavalry FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Forge 24%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Forge 4.17. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 50% | Forge 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, R73389 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Oct 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Forge 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Cavalry FC 1.49 / Forge 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.266 / def 0.705 | Forge attack 1.040 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Forge xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 14 October 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a R73389 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 50% chance of winning, Forge a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Forge (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.27) and Forge's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.83
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.46
0.96
Forge xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.96 for Forge, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 30W 13D 15L from 58 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 16L across 58 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.78 PPG, Forge on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 20W 4D 5L from 29 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Forge's away record stands at 14W 6D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.55 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 30W 13D 15L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Forge have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Forge away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 52%, Forge 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cavalry FC) and 41% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Forge in 45%; Forge in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 34% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 41% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Forge in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 1-2 at ATCO Field, R73389, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.49 xG and Forge 0.96 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Forge outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.70 against Forge attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Forge 24%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Forge win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Forge 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Forge's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.78 PPG, Forge 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.