Atlético Ottawa 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atlético Ottawa face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
York United (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Atlético Ottawa, 1.30 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
York United half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 49% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 40% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.32 xG and York United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.979 / defence 0.973 | York United attack 1.048 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.320. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 28 games and York United's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 26% | York United 38%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.75 | Draw 3.84 | York United 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 home games) | York United 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Atlético Ottawa 28 games, York United 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 1 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 26% | York United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.32 / York United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.979 / def 0.973 | York United attack 1.048 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: York United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
York United xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 1) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 36% chance of winning, York United a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.98x the league average against York United's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.05x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 28 games and York United's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.84
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.35
York United xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.35 for York United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 17D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.26 PPG from 57 outings (20W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.26 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 8W 11D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.25 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa on 1 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
3
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 2, York United have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: York United 2-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games; York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 54% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat York United 2-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.32 xG and York United 1.35 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against York United attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 26% | York United 38%, with York United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 40%, York United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.46 PPG, York United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.