Atlético Ottawa 3-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to TD Place Stadium to face Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 July 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Vancouver FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Vancouver FC away from home: 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Atlético Ottawa's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 43% versus Vancouver FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atlético Ottawa 36% | Vancouver FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.25 xG and Vancouver FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.943 / defence 0.897 | Vancouver FC attack 0.647 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.209. Vancouver FC's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 42 games and Vancouver FC's last 14.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 33% | Vancouver FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.09 | Draw 3.06 | Vancouver FC 5.15. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atlético Ottawa's last 10 home games and Vancouver FC's last 7 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 33% | Vancouver FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.25 / Vancouver FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.943 / def 0.897 | Vancouver FC attack 0.647 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Vancouver FC xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa 3 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 48% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.65x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 42 games and Vancouver FC's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
48%
2.09
33%
3.06
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
1.95
0.70
Vancouver FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
6%
17.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.70 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 3D 6L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 0.93 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 7 away games (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Vancouver FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.43 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC on 19 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 3D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
4
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 August 2026: Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 29%, Vancouver FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Atlético Ottawa and 29% for Vancouver FC.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Vancouver FC in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 43% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 29% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 3-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.25 xG and Vancouver FC 0.70 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Vancouver FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 48% | Draw 33% | Vancouver FC 19%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 36%, Vancouver FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.29 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.