Vitoria 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vitoria face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Flamengo travel to Barradao to take on Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vitoria stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Vitoria have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitoria 1.90 PPG, Flamengo 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Vitoria have won 0, Flamengo 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Vitoria 2–2 Flamengo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitoria trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 58% and Flamengo 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Flamengo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vitoria surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 100% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.989 / defence 1.017 | Flamengo attack 1.141 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: built from Vitoria's last 39 games and Flamengo's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.71 | Draw 2.78 | Flamengo 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitoria are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vitoria 50% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Vitoria 39 games, Flamengo 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Vitoria 1.22 / Flamengo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.989 / def 1.017 | Flamengo attack 1.141 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Flamengo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Vitoria vs Flamengo kick off?
Vitoria vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Vitoria 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Vitoria vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Flamengo part of?
Vitoria vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 37% chance of winning, Flamengo a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vitoria and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Vitoria vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitoria's last 39 games and Flamengo's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
37%
2.71
36%
2.78
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.24
1.02
Flamengo xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.02 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitoria's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 8L across 38 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 8W 3D 8L from their last 19 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across their last 19 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitoria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo in 66%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Vitoria (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitoria
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Vitoria and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.42 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2025, when Flamengo won Flamengo 8-0 Vitoria.
Vitoria's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitoria
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitoria have won 0, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Flamengo 2-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 53%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vitoria) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 32%; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitoria vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitoria and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vitoria's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vitoria and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vitoria's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Vitoria's recent matches and 63% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Vitoria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Vitoria 1-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.