Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasco DA Gama face Vitoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Vitoria at Estádio São Januário in Serie A (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.59 xG and Vitoria 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.976 / defence 1.305 | Vitoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.091. Vitoria's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasco DA Gama's projected output up. Vasco DA Gama's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitoria's projected output up. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 43 games and Vitoria's last 4.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.24 | Draw 3.57 | Vitoria 3.65. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.59 / Vitoria 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.976 / def 1.305 | Vitoria attack 0.850 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vitoria xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 45% chance of winning, Vitoria a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.98x the league average against Vitoria's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 43 games and Vitoria's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.57
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.80
1.21
Vitoria xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.21 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 16 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, Vitoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 July 2026: Vitoria 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Vitoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Vitoria 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.59 xG and Vitoria 1.21 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Vitoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 27%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.