Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Mirassol at in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mirassol are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Mirassol have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Vasco DA Gama's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Mirassol winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mirassol have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mirassol trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 54% versus Mirassol 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 55% | Mirassol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.36 xG and Mirassol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.905 / defence 1.128 | Mirassol attack 0.897 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.126. Data: 57 Vasco DA Gama games / 56 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 41% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 31%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Mirassol 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 41% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.36 / Mirassol 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.905 / def 1.128 | Mirassol attack 0.897 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Mirassol xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Mirassol.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 41% chance of winning, Mirassol a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 3W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.91) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.51
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.50
1.14
Mirassol xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.14 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 11D 28L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.54 PPG from 56 outings (23W 17D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.48 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 23W 17D 16L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Mirassol away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.41 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 52%, Mirassol 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Vasco DA Gama) and 37% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 33% of games; Mirassol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 48% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 37% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at , Regular Season - 20, as Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.36 xG and Mirassol 1.14 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Mirassol attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 41% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 31%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 55%, Mirassol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mirassol's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.